[On March 13, 2025 the Syria Strategy Project (Middle East Institute, the European Institute of Peace, and the Atlantic Council) held a Zoom workshop on their recently released report “Reimagining Syria: A Roadmap for Peace and Prosperity Beyond Assad”. The following are our takeaways of high points of that workshop and is not intended as a verbatim transcript. The entire panel discussion may be seen here.]
Introductory Remarks
Charles Lister (Middle East Institute) The Syria Strategy Project was launched a year ago with about 100 experts about half of whom are Syrians both inside and outside the country. It has three core pillars. First, working groups on security, humanitarian aid and assistance, governance, the political process and political transition, justice and accountability, and economic recovery. Second, stakeholder engagement to create a feedback loop. Third, the Madonia Civil Society group of hundreds of Syrian civil society NGOs also for feedback.
The situation has changed dramatically since a year ago. It is more realistic to move forward than it was while Assad was in power. Syrians are breathing an air of greater optimism, but there are enormous challenges including those between armed groups.
Keynote
Tim Lenderking (U.S. State Dept. Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs). This is a pivotal moment in Syria. With proper international engagement Syria can get on its feet, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Reports like this contribute to a comprehensive picture of what is happening in Syria. Syrians, like us, have big questions as to whether the new regime has given up their past ideology. The events of this past weekend are not promising. Sectarian militias and foreign fighters must have no role in the new Syria. We seek information about American citizens who disappeared in Assad’s prisons. We welcome the recent announcement of the integration of the Northeast into a unified Syria, although implementation is fraught with challenges. We note the positive developments toward the safe removal of chemical weapons. We emphasize the need to include the diversity for which Syria is known.
The Syria Strategy Project: A Vision for the Future
Charles Lister (Middle East Institute). For the last fourteen years the principal reason we could not make progress on the Syrian crisis was Bashar al-Assad. For an even longer period Syria has been an open wound destabilizing the region. We begin to see two differing approached in the U.S.: one that without engagement we have no chance of progress, the other with much more skepticism. Syrians are tempering their expectations but outsiders seem to expect an instant resolution, and support during a humanitarian crisis from the international community is low. Establishing stability will be a long process.
Qutaiba Idlbi (Atlantic Council). The model the UN has been using in Syria was built on cozying up to the Assad regime. As we see a more unified Syria, we need to shift focus for the UN relief to serve that goal. We should start by appointing an experienced senior coordinator that can bring together the different UN agencies. If there is a safe, voluntary refugee return, it will be the largest since WWII and will require a lot of coordination and resources. We need to shift from emergency assistance to sustainable early recovery assistance. The NGO community in Syria has been strangled for years. Idlibi argued that assisting Syria is an America first priority for, if we neglect it, Russia and China will not.
Marie Forestier (European Institute of Peace). This is an opportunity for women to play the key role they can play. If you want women to participate in politics you must end the sanctions that require them to forgo political activity to try to feed their families. Without a clear guarantee of equality in the constitution it will be difficult for women to overcome the power imbalance. Thousands of those who disappeared under Assad were men, leaving their women behind in difficult situations.
Dana Stroul (The Washington Institute), Moderator. Yesterday the government announced that Islamic law would remain the source of law, that the president must be Muslim, and that there would be no prime minister. Is this setting the groundwork for an inclusive government?
Forestier. Inclusion is the key. It is necessary for stability. For women, a quota is the main tool. The two bodies appointed to date, the Preparatory Committee for National Dialog and the constitutional drafting committee are both thirty percent women, with no quota requirement. A clear test will be how many women ministers are appointed. As to the various religious and ethnic communities, all Syrians reject quotas as divisive. Geographic representation is one option.
Idlbi. The impediments posed by sanctions are much broader than just economic. They have prevented the NGOs from cooperating with the authorities to provide services needed in the wake of the collapse of the Assad regime. Is even registration and licensing permitted under the sanctions regime? This isn’t our first experience of dealing with a governing body associated with designated terrorist organization. We have dealt with the SDF and the YPG since 2014. We need to remove sanctions to allow our partners in the region and Europe to act. We must at least free Syrians to act. So far Damascus has delivered on our security interests. “Trust and verify” would be important. Reimposing sanctions is much easier than removing them.
Lister. The armed groups had not expected to take over the country. They now face what may be the biggest most complex dchallenge in modern history. They have set it in motion. The announced agreements are amazingly good news, but it is only a framework agreement and the devil is in the details, yet to be negotiated. On Thursday there were about 33 loyalist attacks gauged to provoke a retaliation, and they continue. There is a great deal of healing to be done.
The U.S. military has pivoted from only counter-terrorism, to face-to-face engagement facilitating putting all the armed groups under a single central government that represents all Syrians. Major General Leahy has a good working relationship with Ahmed al-Sharaa. When Assad left, ISIS disappeared, but over the past two weeks they have come back, and there has already been a lot of work between the U.S. and the interim government on Damascus.
Idlbi. If the economic issues are not addressed, none of the other goals will be reached.
Lister. Everybody, with one and a half exceptions, want stability in Syria. The half is Iran, and the one is Israel. Land grabs on the Golan Heights and daily ground incursions, and nearly daily air strikes are a really big problem. The fact that al-Sharaa has kept a lid on the reaction to the Israeli aggression is something of a miracle, and how long he can continue to do so is an open question. If the U.S. cannot use its influence to induce Israel to back off, Turkey may use its military power to do so. Elon Musk created the disinformation that the attacks of last weekend were aimed at Christians when only 0.4% of the victims were Christians, and our Secretary of State Marco Rubio pretends that that the killings were aimed at Alawites and Christians (when 40% of the victims were Sunni Muslims), basically sowing disinformation to join with the Israelis to push for regime change.
Assessing Paths Forward: From Diplomacy, to the Economy, Governance & More.
Elizabeth Hagedorn (Al-Monitor), Moderator. The things that make me optimistic are Syrians; the things that make me pessimistic are the outside forces.
Mohammed Alaa Ghanem (Citizens for a Secure and Safe America; Middle East Institute). People cannot register marriages and deaths (the speaker cannot register his own father’s death) because sanctions prevent the importation of computers.
Thomas Warrick (Atlantic Council). The interim government has said all the right things. The question is can they deliver. Those in charge in Washington now are deeply skeptical. When Castro came on his charm offensive to Washington, even Richard Nixon thought that perhaps he had reformed. “Damascus must break through a barrier that is almost, but not quite, unbreakable” including a change towards Israel.
Natasha Hall (Center for Strategic and International Studies). There is no way any government can survive under these sanctions. People are using needles three times and sterilizing things with perfume. The caution is understandable, but Damascus will be forced to turn to Russia and other actors that will be terrible for both Syrian people and U.S. interests. She hopes to see more movement like the recent gas deal.
Ghanem. Google Joba and you will see destruction reminiscent of Hiroshima. The people have no where to go. The infrastructure is not there. The longer you maintain sanctions, the more you waste this opportunity. There is a middle road between no engagement and carte blanche. Provide people with an economic incentive. People in desperate poverty have no option but to take up arms.
Warrick. The two objectives are for Syria not be a jihadist state and that Iran not be let back in. There are some in Washington who want the new government to fail, though a failed state makes terrorism much more likely. Washington wants Damascus to prove it will not attack Israel or its other neighbors. The only thing that will break through with the Trump administration is for Syria to initiate direct talks to join the Abraham accords.
Hall. What is needed is positive engagement, not negative engagement.
Ghanem. We raised the issue of Israel with al-Sharaa, and he insisted they have no intention of attacking Israel. They want to talk. Provocative statements from Israel on a daily basis are not helpful. Stabilizing Syria is in the best interests of everyone. From an America first perspective, it is the best strategy.
There is a need to build Syrian civil society so it can push back against the state. The fact that the government has let various segments Syrian society (including some Kurds) into the Presidential palace to consult was a good step, even if the state has accepted only some of the recommendations.
Ghanem. The solution to the problem of Syrians in diaspora who wish to return is to decriminalize it.
Hall. The U.S. has provided 50% of the foreign aid to Syria. Ending it has been devastating.
Warrick. My fear is that lack of progress on the economy will fuel an insurgency, the beginning of which we have already seen. The only prospect of a breakthrough with the Trump administration is the Israel issue.
Ghanem. The Israeli bombings are stoking both fear and resentment. There is an eagerness to break away from Russia, but that hinges on U.S. sanctions policy.
Warrick. When you don’t have elections, a good means of measuring public opinion becomes very important. One of the best things that can be done is for European think tanks to provide a mechanism to survey public opinion in Syria.
Imad-ad-Dean Ahmad
Minaret of Freedom Institute
minaret.org
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