[On April 24, 2025 the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations held a YouTube webinar on “A Post-Assad Syria: Dilemmas, Diplomacy, and a New Strategic Vision?” The following are our takeaways of high points of that workshop and is not intended as a verbatim transcript. The entire webinar may be seen here.]
Timothy Lenderking (Senior Bureau Official in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State).
The current administration is being encouraged by our international partners to engage with the new leadership, but they are not ready to do so yet and want to first see if they can turn a corner on their past. Sanctions will not come off overnight. There are specific things they can do to establish our confidence: that Iran stay out, that interim authorities combat terrorism (especially ISIS), that the northeast be integrated into Syria, the destruction of all chemical weapons, the adoption of nonaggression principles with neighboring states, more acts like the arrest of Palestinian Islamic jihad members, no repeat of the killings of Syrian citizens, expulsion of all foreign fighters from official posts, readmission of qualified Syrian expats, a military committed to the defense of all Syrians and no threat to its neighbors, and development of the Syrian economy. Demonstrable steps in these directions will lead to relief of sanctions.
Dr. William Lawrence (Director of the North Africa Area Studies and Senior Academic Fellow, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations), moderator.
Sanctions are clunky and really hard to remove. Is there a discussion on how to lighten sanctions short of complete removal?
Lenderking. We could allow certain types of commercial activities.We don’t want the Syrians to suffer undue stress, for example the shortage of fuel for hospitals. The ball is in their court. With time, there will be more of a focus on Russia’s role.
Ambassador (Ret.) Robert Ford (Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow, Middle East Institute).
It is hoped, but not certain, that the Syrians understand the American asks outlined by Mr. Lenderking. A failure to meet the foreign minister during his coming visit would itself be a message and not a good one. Sharaa has said that he understands that there are tactics useful to liberation movements that are inappropriate in governing and that governance of the diverse society is different from the governance of a smaller, more conservative, region. The question is will Syrian liberals have the space they need. Currently, there is a remarkable amount of freedom of speech, certainly as compared with the Assad era. Police stand back as people openly criticize the government. The commanders of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are actually the YPG (Syrian Kurdish Milita) and calling them the SDF obscures the issue. It is hard to imagine how they would be integrated into the new Syrian army.
Dr. Fadi Hilani (Senior Academic and Research Fellow-in-Residence, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations).
There are many challenges to the Syrian transition. Foremost is the security challenge. One aspect is violence triggered by remnants of the Assad regime and attributed to “uncontrolled fighters” (some members of the Syrian forces and some foreigners). It is an open question as to whether a foreigner could succeed Sharaa to power. There are reports from NGOs that some fighters have “disappeared,” perhaps to infiltrate various areas of Syria. There is also the regional power competition which is not new but is changing form. Turkey may have an opportunity to establish bases in Syria now which Israel would perceive as a threat to its national security. The Israelis have already extended their occupation of the Golan Heights. Other active actors are Russians who want to keep their bases and of course Iran which wants to keep a foothold on its corridor to Hezbollah. The Arab countries have been welcoming to the new leadership and the Europeans have been open to them. The main obstacle has been the United States which still categorizes the leadership as terrorists.
Ms. Caroline Rose (Director, New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy).
There are opportunities to build civil society, and to engage with governance institutions and educational institutions. The main challenges are defining the state’s external legitimacy, its internal credibility, establishing order, and defending against external threats. The violence we saw along the coast was a key blight to Sharaa’s credibility and a preview of what can happen absence control. There is frustration over people who have disappeared. There is rampant frustration over the economic situation. There has been violence also with smuggling groups. As has been noted, the integration of the SDF will not be easy. Repeated strikes from Israel, the potential for Turkish intervention, and ISIS are all obstacles that require international support.
Dr. Neil Quilliam (Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House).
It is rare for a country to be in a position to recreate itself. The Gulf states have increased their diplomatic engagement, especially in the past few months. Qatar is taking a lead. But the Gulf states will not support a democratization process at all.
Ford. The solution to Syria’s problems do not lie solely with Washington. Syrians have agency. The most important thing is to watch what is happening with the various armed groups. Without security, you cannot rebuild an economy, let alone a political system.
Quilliam.The Europeans are bumbling along, but they are ahead of the Americans on sanctions and financial support. The Syrian diaspora is stepping up, going back to make tremendous contributions to the country.
Rose. The regime has pulled back the curtain on Captagon production, but the producers are still making it and pose a threat to the new regime.
Hilani. On more than one occasion the government said they inherited a destroyed state. Before establishing a democracy, you need a national dialog. The five years Sharaa speaks of is legitimate. In addition to those opposed to democracy there are those opposed to the word but not the concept. Most likely the system at the end of five years will not be democratic, but it will not look like the Assad regime either. Ambassador Ford spoke about the free speech and its is unlikely the Syrian people will want to lose that and they will want to have a share in the new government. Syrians will not want to be absent from political life. It may be an Arab model, neither democracy nor dictatorship.
Ford. The net of American sanctions on Syria is thick. Executive orders can be overridden by Trump, but laws must be repealed by Congress. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman probably has more influence on Trump than Republican members of Congress.
Imad-ad-Dean Ahmad
Minaret of Freedom Institute
www.minaret.org
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