News and Analysis 1/11/26

“Iran’s protest movement has entered a sharper and more dangerous phase, marked by continued street mobilization despite near-total communications blackout, escalating threats from senior officials, and a visibly hardened security posture” …

… Videos, hospitals, human rights groups, and government reports all testify to escalating violence …

“In his remarks, Trump went further than he has so far and suggested the U.S. could intervene in favor of the protesters regardless of whether the regime uses violence against them” …

… and his “administration is weighing preliminary options for a potential military strike on Iran, including large-scale airstrikes, though officials stress the planning is routine and no action is imminent” …

… seemingly in consultation with Israel …

… and Iran declares it would respond:

Israeli war crimes continue:

Three conditions for foreign involvement to strengthen opposition movements: “the presence of domestic organization capable of absorbing outside support, fractures within the security apparatus, and whether external signals reinforced or undermined the movement’s domestic legitimacy”:

“Most of all, I wanted freedom. I’m so scared I won’t get it”:

“NetBlocks has described the current blackout as among the most severe ever recorded in Iran. ‘We are tracking near-total disconnection of internet service across Iran right now, and connectivity is below 2% of ordinary levels’”:

“Reza Pahlavi is not a unifying figure, but remains a symbol of exclusion”:


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