News and Analysis 1/30/26

Updates on prospects for a U.S. – Iran war:

“Mogadishu will support separatist movements inside Somaliland”:

“[A]t least one surgeon now at risk of being sentenced to death”

“An Iranian government official said some children had been detained, the first such acknowledgment in weeks of anti-government protests”:

Israeli war crimes continue:

“Iran’s crisis is the product of domestic authoritarianism and can only be resolved by the Iranian people themselves —without foreign military intervention and through a peaceful, democratic transition” …

… “A post-revolutionary Iran would more likely resemble the violent internal conflicts of the French Revolution than a peaceful democratic transition”:

“The ‘madman theory’ aims to pressure adversaries but risks backfiring when opponents feel they have nothing to lose”:


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