News and Analysis 2/27/26

The mediator and Iran claim progress was made …

U.S., Iran Complete Round of Talks as Trump Weighs Diplomacy Against Strikes (Washington Post)

… but the U.S. signals are mixed:

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Were “Positive,” Senior U.S. Official Says (Axios)
U.S. Mum After Iran talks in Geneva (Diplomatic / Substack)

“House Democrats are expected to force a vote next week designed to stop Trump from launching strikes without first obtaining congressional approval” …

Second GOP Lawmaker Backs Iran War Powers Act, Barring ‘New Information’ (The Hill)

… and “former soldiers are begging [Trump] to pull back”:

Veterans Urge Trump to Reject War with Iran (Responsible Statecraft)

Claims “that Iran has restarted its nuclear program, has enough available nuclear material to build a bomb within days, and is developing long-range missiles that will soon be capable of hitting the United States … are either false or unproven” …

In Trump’s Case for War, a Series of False or Unproven Claims (NY Times)

… and the prospect that the mullahs “might be pushed aside and Iran’s current hybrid regime — part clerical, part military — … give[s] way to a more conventional officer-led government … is an unlikely path to liberal democracy”:

‘Bomb and Hope’ Is Not a Strategy (Washington Post)

“[C]ritics fear that without oversight by the UN, Indonesian forces could be used as “pawns” by the US – Israel’s foremost ally – to control Palestinians in Gaza and formalise the occupation of the enclave”:

Solidarity with Palestinians Questioned as Indonesian Troops Set for Gaza (Aljazeera)

Vance and a “powerful Iran-backed Iraqi armed group” differ on the prospects for a long war:

Vance: ‘No Chance’ U.S. Will Be in Drawn-out War in Middle East (Washington Post)
Iraq’s Kataeb Hezbollah Tells Fighters to Prepare for Long Iran-US War (Times of Israel)

“In an email to embassy workers Friday morning, Ambassador Mike Huckabee warned them that if they wanted to leave Israel, they ‘should do so TODAY’”:

With Possible Iran Strike Looming, U.S. Says Staff Can Leave Israel, Urging Speed (NY Times)

The five-percentage-point advantage of sympathy for Palestinians over Israelis “is not statistically significant, but it contrasts with a clear lead for the Israelis only a year ago (46% vs. 33%) and larger leads over the prior 24 years”: