News and Analysis 3/9/26

“Strikes on nonmilitary infrastructure were a ‘serious escalation,’ analysts said, and could widen the war’s impact on civilians” …

Vital Desalination Plants in Iran and Bahrain Are Attacked (NY Times)

… “Horizontal escalation occurs when a state widens the geographic and political scope of a conflict rather than intensifying it vertically in a single theater” …

Why Escalation Favors Iran: America and Israel May Have Bitten Off More Than They Can Chew (Foreign Affairs)

… “Iranian residents have reported headaches, difficulty breathing, and oil-contaminated rain settling on buildings and cars” …

What Is the ‘Acid Rain’ in the Wake of US Bombings in Iran? An Atmospheric Scientist Explains (The Conversation)

… but “water, not oil may be the resource most at risk in the energy-rich but arid region” …

Oil Built the Persian Gulf. Desalinated Water Keeps It Alive. War Could Threaten Both (AP)

…and “evidence contradicts President Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible for a strike at the school that killed 175 people, most of them children”:

U.S. Tomahawk Hit Naval Base Beside Iranian School, Video Shows (NY Times)

“The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, a powerful regime insider, sent a strong message of defiance against President Donald Trump”:

Khamenei’s Son Chosen as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Extending Hardline Rule (Washington Post)

“U.S. Central Command said the death was caused by injuries after an attack on a Saudi military base”:

Pentagon Announces Seventh U.S. Death in War with Iran (NY Times)

“Israel‘s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began“: